Global Energy Outlook Forum 2025
South Asia energy demand outlook for 2025
I was privileged to be invited by the Gulf Intelligence 's - Global Energy Outlook, on 9th Jan 24 , which featured speakers from across the world.
I spoke in the Asian section in "South Asia energy demand outlook for 2025 " . Link to the talk as below.
Key points.
1)India 's energy demand will be driven by the economic growth.
2) Oil intensity in India 's energy mix is lower due to dependence on coal, increasing share of gas, switch to renewables and higher share of services in the GDP .
3) South Asian countries will prioritize energy security over renewables switch as all of them are growing at 5% +.
4) A regional economic block, like EU, will take some time to take off due to high political differences amongst the nations.
I spoke in the Asian section in "South Asia energy demand outlook for 2025 " . Link to the talk as below.
Key points.
1)India 's energy demand will be driven by the economic growth.
2) Oil intensity in India 's energy mix is lower due to dependence on coal, increasing share of gas, switch to renewables and higher share of services in the GDP .
3) South Asian countries will prioritize energy security over renewables switch as all of them are growing at 5% +.
4) A regional economic block, like EU, will take some time to take off due to high political differences amongst the nations.
India’s oil imports are not necessarily commensurate to its GDP growth.
India’s energy mix remains heavily reliant on coal, still the dominant source. Oil and gas come next. India’s gas imports have been increasing, with a growing focus on gas usage in the country. The country’s gasoline and diesel consumption remain strong, as does aviation fuel demand, driven by economic growth. Indian refiners have also been actively importing crude, particularly from Russia, and positioning India as an export hub for refined petroleum products, including to markets like Europe, which have been displaced from Russian supply. Putting all this together, demand growth in India remains steady, though not at the levels we saw in China a decade ago. I would estimate India’s oil demand growth to be around 3–3.5%.
Trajectory of oil demand for the rest of Southeast Asia?
Countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam are all experiencing GDP growth rates exceeding 5.5%. Most of these economies are heavily reliant on fossil fuels, despite taking steps toward renewable energy adoption. The priority in Southeast Asia, much like in India, is energy security, with the transition to renewables being a longer-term goal.
Is there hope for greater regional cooperation in South Asia?
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) hasn’t delivered the level of cooperation seen in ASEAN or the EU. Political instability in countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, along with regional tensions, hampers progress. India has made efforts to strengthen ties but achieving deep economic and political integration will require significant political will and obstacles remain on that front.
Any specific tariff or Trump policy that South Asia, particularly India, is concerned about?
Over the past month, there’s been talk of Trump asking for the removal of tariffs on certain American products exported to India. India has imposed retaliatory tariffs, but I believe a resolution will be found, given the strong partnership between the two nations. That said, during the initial days of the Trump administration, we might see heightened market volatility. India has been preparing to mitigate potential impacts by engaging various industries. While there’s some concern, the longstanding India-US relationship should prevent significant negative outcomes.
