The Shifting Sands of Energy and Geopolitics
Reflections from the 13th Gulf Intelligence Energy Market Forum, Fujairah
If there is one word that captures the spirit of the 13th Gulf Intelligence Energy Market Forum held recently in Fujairah, it is WOW.
For two days, the emirate’s skyline mirrored the mood of the global energy industry — dynamic and uncertain, yet brimming with opportunities. Over 300 distinguished participants — spanning oil majors, national energy companies, financial institutions, and geopolitical experts — convened to dissect the state of the world’s most consequential markets: oil, energy, and geopolitics.
The event was more than another industry gathering. It was a vivid reflection of a world in flux — one where trade barriers, shifting alliances, and the energy transition are converging to redefine global order.
For two days, the emirate’s skyline mirrored the mood of the global energy industry — dynamic and uncertain, yet brimming with opportunities. Over 300 distinguished participants — spanning oil majors, national energy companies, financial institutions, and geopolitical experts — convened to dissect the state of the world’s most consequential markets: oil, energy, and geopolitics.
The event was more than another industry gathering. It was a vivid reflection of a world in flux — one where trade barriers, shifting alliances, and the energy transition are converging to redefine global order.
World Re-Wiring Itself
This year’s deliberations came against an especially charged backdrop.
The U.S. tariff embargoes and President Trump’s renewed trade tirade against China and India — both for continuing Russian oil purchases — set the stage for passionate exchanges. Around this fulcrum revolved a range of developments: Pakistan’s deft diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, Israel’s escalating tensions with Qatar, growing calls for de-dollarization, and an emboldened BRICS bloc pushing for alternative economic narratives.
Amid this churn, the question loomed large: how are the world’s energy arteries adapting to these geopolitical tremors?
Amid this churn, the question loomed large: how are the world’s energy arteries adapting to these geopolitical tremors?
Geopolitics: From Leadership to Transactional leadership
Several themes stood out.
First, the United States appears to be in a more transactional mode. The once-visionary global leadership that shaped post-war multilateralism has given way to a narrower, deal-driven pragmatism. The recent tariff measures and policy unpredictability have left allies uneasy and competitors emboldened.
Second, alliances are fragmenting. As Washington steps back, nations are increasingly pursuing self-preservation. The Saudi Arabia–Pakistan defence accord is emblematic of the “every nation for itself” era now taking shape in global diplomacy.
Third, India’s assertive stance on continuing to import Russian crude despite U.S. pressure has earned both admiration and respect. It is viewed as a mature declaration of economic sovereignty. India today commands a unique position — as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, a thriving democracy, and a market of over a billion consumers. Its expanding network of free-trade agreements only reinforces that ignoring India is no longer an option for any global power.
Lastly, China’s ascent remains unmistakable. By investing deeply in renewables, technology, and global infrastructure, Beijing has cemented itself as the principal counterweight to Washington. The gradual thaw in India-China relations, coupled with renewed vigor in the Russia-India-China (RIC) axis and the expanding BRICS framework, reflects a new geopolitical architecture taking shape across Asia.
Oil & Energy Markets
Cautious Optimism in a Volatile World
The discussions on oil and energy were as animated as the geopolitical panels.
Global Oil
Global oil demand growth appears to be tapering, with consensus that China may have already reached its peak oil consumption. The OPEC+ decision of October 5, 2025, to increase production underlines a market more focused on stability than scarcity. Prices are expected to hover in the USD 60–65 per barrel range — a level that balances producer revenue with consumer affordability.
Russian Crude
Russian crude continues to find its way to market, primarily via India and China, which have become critical lifelines in maintaining supply equilibrium. Importantly, Russian oil remains free from the harsher sanctions imposed on Venezuela and Iran.
China’s Aggressive
Another interesting dynamic is China’s aggressive buildup of its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), estimated at 0.5 – 1 million barrels per day. This stockpiling has become a stabilizing (if opaque) factor in global demand patterns.
LNG
The conference also reaffirmed Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a vital bridge fuel in the world’s transition to cleaner energy systems. LNG offers flexibility and reliability, particularly for nations balancing industrial growth with emission targets.
Renewables
Meanwhile, the renewables story is gathering pace — driven primarily by China’s unparalleled scale in solar and wind power manufacturing. Yet, as several speakers emphasized, fossil fuels remain indispensable in ensuring energy security for at least the next two decades.
Oil Prices
Oil prices, as always, remain hostage to geopolitics. Whether it is unrest in the Middle East or tariff-induced slowdowns, each event leaves an imprint on the market. With a possible easing of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the so-called “war premium” on crude may soon dissipate.
Balancing Energy, Economics, and Environment
The overarching takeaway from Fujairah was clear: the world is entering a phase where energy security, economic sovereignty, and environmental responsibility must coexist.
No longer can nations rely on a singular energy strategy or geopolitical alignment. The interplay between fossil fuels and renewables, between nationalism and multilateralism, will define how effectively the global economy navigates this decade.
Fujairah, with its strategic location and role as a regional oil-trading and storage hub, provided the perfect setting for such reflections. The conversations were not about abstract forecasts but about tangible strategies — how nations, corporations, and markets can stay resilient amid shifting sands.
The 13th Gulf Intelligence Forum reaffirmed that we are living through a decisive inflection point in global energy and geopolitics. The old certainties are fading; new equations are emerging.
In this transition, nations that combine strategic autonomy with economic pragmatism — like India — are poised to lead. The challenge will be to maintain this delicate balance while embracing innovation, sustainability, and cooperation.
As I left Fujairah, one sentiment resonated deeply:
No longer can nations rely on a singular energy strategy or geopolitical alignment. The interplay between fossil fuels and renewables, between nationalism and multilateralism, will define how effectively the global economy navigates this decade.
Fujairah, with its strategic location and role as a regional oil-trading and storage hub, provided the perfect setting for such reflections. The conversations were not about abstract forecasts but about tangible strategies — how nations, corporations, and markets can stay resilient amid shifting sands.
The 13th Gulf Intelligence Forum reaffirmed that we are living through a decisive inflection point in global energy and geopolitics. The old certainties are fading; new equations are emerging.
In this transition, nations that combine strategic autonomy with economic pragmatism — like India — are poised to lead. The challenge will be to maintain this delicate balance while embracing innovation, sustainability, and cooperation.
As I left Fujairah, one sentiment resonated deeply:
