Trump’s Shadow Haunts the Ballot Box
From Canada to Australia to Singapore
Recent election outcomes in Canada, Australia, and even Singapore reveal a common trend: voters are prioritizing stability in a volatile global economy—and pushing back against the disruptive legacy of Donald Trump.
In both Canada and Australia, incumbent leaders who were initially trailing due to rising living costs staged strong comebacks by positioning themselves as defenders of economic stability and critics of Trump-style politics.
In both Canada and Australia, incumbent leaders who were initially trailing due to rising living costs staged strong comebacks by positioning themselves as defenders of economic stability and critics of Trump-style politics.
The Kangaroo jumps higher in Australia
In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese successfully framed the election as a choice between steady leadership and populist disruption. Despite facing criticism over housing affordability, Albanese gained ground by opposing what he portrayed as bullying tactics inspired by Trump. His opponent, Peter Dutton of the Liberal National Coalition, echoed Trump-era rhetoric—promising public sector cuts, offshore detention of asylum seekers, and a hardline stance on China—which ultimately backfired. Voters rejected his abrasive campaign and backed Albanese’s more moderate approach.
In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney similarly capitalized on anti-Trump sentiment. Trump’s past actions—such as imposing tariffs and suggesting Canada should be the 51st U.S. state—had left a lasting impact. Carney’s narrative of standing up to U.S. aggression resonated more deeply than the opposition Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s narrow focus on inflation. Carney, a former central banker, also made inroads with progressive voters, even pulling support away from the New Democratic Party, which had leaned into emotional issues like the Khalistan movement.
Maple leaf is intact in Canada
Lion city votes for tried and tested
Singapore’s case was different in form but similar in outcome. With global trade threatened by escalating tariff wars, voters opted for continuity under Lawrence Wong and the long-ruling People’s Action Party (PAP). Given Singapore’s high trade-to-GDP ratio (~310%, compared to 49% for Australia and 67% for Canada), the electorate favoured the proven competence of PAP over uncertainty.
Will the Anti-Trump Tide Reach U.S. Shores
While Trump himself is not facing immediate elections, the midterms in late 2026 will be a critical test. His approval ratings are languishing at around 42–43%—a low point for a president early in his term. If his tariff policies trigger inflation or recession, and if global deals on trade, Iran, or ongoing conflicts falter, Trump could become politically vulnerable.
His platform of reshoring manufacturing is unlikely to yield visible results before 2026. Moreover, without diplomatic wins—such as ceasefires in conflicts involving Russia or Hamas—his leadership could be viewed as both economically and politically destabilizing.
The Canadian and Australian elections suggest that campaigns anchored in opposition to Trumpism, coupled with promises of stability, can resonate with voters. If current trends hold, Trump risks not only a poor showing in the midterms but also growing dissent within his own Republican Party.
Despite its imperfections, democracy remains a powerful equalizer.
Hail Democracy.
His platform of reshoring manufacturing is unlikely to yield visible results before 2026. Moreover, without diplomatic wins—such as ceasefires in conflicts involving Russia or Hamas—his leadership could be viewed as both economically and politically destabilizing.
The Canadian and Australian elections suggest that campaigns anchored in opposition to Trumpism, coupled with promises of stability, can resonate with voters. If current trends hold, Trump risks not only a poor showing in the midterms but also growing dissent within his own Republican Party.
Despite its imperfections, democracy remains a powerful equalizer.
Hail Democracy.
There’s little doubt that Donald Trump is an aggressive individual. He is used to making business deals by asking for 10x what he is willing to accept and then negotiating down to what he sees as acceptable. That is what I think he is doing with tariffs. The US balance of trade is negative and many countries impose tariffs on US imports beyond what the US imposes on foreign countries. I think he is trying to get closer to free open trade. I think this is a good thing for the US to work toward but Mr. Trump’s approach to this has created significant uncertainty and fear. Even though some may not like it, the only good news is you always know where Trump stands because whatever is going on in his head comes flying out of his mouth.
Pete, Thanks for your comments. Agree that Trump is a deal maker and takes a very aggressive position. Since I wrote this piece, he has been able to close a deal with UK and with China and a few more to come. On the other side, he has made some ludicrous comments like on the India – Pakistan ceasefire. He is not known for diplomatic niceties and shoots his mouth which can be his undoing.
Hope he manages to do the right things and not create a chaos globally and in the USA.